We aren’t even keeping pace with the plan

1) It is based on a mere 50%+ chance of limiting global heating to 1.5ºC. These are terrible odds. The CEE Bill would have us work to the safer 66%+ chance pathway provided by the UN experts, the IPCC.


UN experts told the world in 2018 that we must not add more than another 420 billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere for a ‘greater than 66% chance’ of limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5ºC. This is our carbon budget.  But UK legislation is based on a weaker ‘greater than 50% chance’ of success.   We don’t think a 50:50 gamble on our children’s future is good enough. The CEE Bill would work to the IPCC’s 66%+ carbon budget. We would prefer even higher odds of success, but humanity has delayed responding to climate change for so long that ‘greater than 66%’ is arguably now the best we can do. (For more on the global carbon budget, see the question on the net zero target date.)