The climate-nature crisis is accelerating at an alarming rate, delivering impacts far more severe and rapid than scientists anticipated. In the UK, just think back to Somerset’s flooding, East Anglia’s coastal erosion, peatland degradation in the Highlands, London heatwaves, or biodiversity loss across the Lakes—places that are all feeling the brunt of faster than predicted changes, which are straining communities, ecosystems and infrastructure.
Yet, instead of taking bold, immediate steps to address this dual emergency, we find ourselves mired in discussions about ‘future plans’. At Zero Hour, we believe this policymaking approach is deeply insufficient—and dangerously out of step with the urgency of the moment.
Clean energy is a major focus on the now, not so new, Labour Government. The ambition of clean power by 2030 is welcome. It’s part of a scientific, legal and policy system that includes the risk global tipping points, 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement, the Climate Change Act 2008, the UK’s carbon budgets, the net zero by 2050 target—and many more connected policies about energy, buildings, transport, trade, farming and, more generally, political questions about how we live—and what type of future (burdens) we will pass on to future generations.
But Britain’s main architecture for emissions reductions centres around the UK’s carbon budgets, a series of progressively tightening 5-year emissions targets. The latest target, the 7th Carbon Budget was published this week, covering the period 2038 to 2042. Whilst it is important to make future plans, there’s a problem with where things currently stand—a problem, much like Brexit, that no one wants to talk about.
The UK’s current fourth and fifth carbon budgets, spanning 2023 to 2032, are woefully inadequate. These budgets require the Government to reduce emissions by a mere 1% per year over this period—a target so unambitious that it virtually guarantees continued failure in our climate and nature policies. It is utterly lacking in vision, and explains why we’re witnessing a string of missed opportunities and broken promises on the energy and environmental fronts.
The reason for this tiny 1% reduction is that the difference between Carbon Budgets 4 and 5 is small, and in 2023—the first year of Carbon Budget 4—the UK was already within target. That may sound like good news, but the UK’s apparent strong performance on emissions cuts is an illusion. Once we include the emissions caused by the goods we import, and international aviation and shipping—currently ignored—the UK’s carbon footprint has fallen by well under 1% since 1990. The Government also ignores major sources of emissions like from Drax power station, wrongly treated as zero carbon.
Moving beyond 2032, the 6th Carbon Budget demands a larger emissions cut, and for the first time brings in aviation and shipping. But with nothing to drive meaningful cuts in the near-term, it is not realistic to expect a sudden acceleration in performance in 2033.
Rather than leading by example—and inspiring rapid global action—the UK is stalling on near-term measures. Very disappointingly, Ministers seem to have been swayed more by the voices of lobbyists (the same fossil fuel advocates pushing for CCS, Drax, airport expansion and Rosebank) than the clear warnings of climate scientists that we’re heading for at least 2.5°C of global warming and that the UK is off track.
It’s all too easy for policymakers to make grand promises for decades down the line, long after their term in office ends. But the reality is stark: this is pushing the problem to future generations, and we cannot afford to wait. The Government must not only plan for Carbon Budget 7—covering 2038 to 2042—but also implement decisive, emergency action now.
Today, the independent Climate Change Committee released its advice on the seventh carbon budget, recommending a cap on UK greenhouse gas emissions of 535 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) for the period from 2038 to 2042, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. While this forward-looking advice is critical, it also underscores the need for immediate steps to bridge the gap between today’s inaction and tomorrow’s targets.
This budget from the Committee was developed with the understanding that scientific knowledge has evolved since the publication of the fourth and fifth carbon budgets, set in 2011 and 2016 respectively. Those earlier budgets, designed when 2°C was considered by many politicians to be “safe”, have not been updated to reflect the now, much more well known, impacts of breaching 1.5°C; which the Earth has passed (we hope) temporarily. Moreover, these budgets exclude emissions from international aviation and shipping until 2033, further undermining their effectiveness.
At Zero Hour, we call on the Labour Government to stop delaying—and start leading. Carbon Budget 7 is a step in the right direction, but it’s sadly meaningless without immediate, bold action to slash emissions, phase out fossil fuels, and better protect our natural world. The time for talk is over—now is the time for the Labour Government to tell the truth—and grasp this nettle, before it’s too late.
