Andy Burnham is the presumptive successor to Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. With no serious challenger yet declared, the expectation is that Burnham will take the leadership uncontested. What, then, does this mean for our climate future? Burnham’s nine years as Mayor of Greater Manchester mean that his record on climate targets in office can be thoroughly tested, but how will his move to Number 10 affect his priorities and ability to deliver on Net-Zero targets? Burnham’s record so far is strong; but two key tests will demonstrate early on whether his commitment will survive the transition to Westminster: new oil and gas licences, and appointments to the cabinet.
Burnham’s record in Manchester
Burnham’s record in Greater Manchester points to a leader committed to achieving economic growth and social justice through the pursuit of sustainability goals. In 2019, Greater Manchester set a target to reach Net-Zero by 2038, twelve years before the UK National Target. Throughout his time as Mayor, Greater Manchester took consistent steps towards achieving this goal.
Greater Manchester’s progress on the issue demonstrates a commitment from Burnham beyond rhetoric. The much-lauded Bee Network, in its iconic yellow, offers an affordable, integrated public transport system, with the bus fleet targeted to be fully electrified by 2030. On housing, Greater Manchester’s retrofit programme has targeted insulation, heat pumps and energy efficiency upgrades. The programme doubles as a green jobs strategy, upskilling workers for retrofit roles. Greater Manchester has consistently been recognised as a climate leader, featuring on the CDP’s A List every year from 2021-2025.
On nature and biodiversity, Greater Manchester’s record is strong. Greater Manchester’s Green Spaces Fund invested £3.5 million into over 120 community projects to increase green space across the city. In 2025 Greater Manchester launched a local nature recovery strategy to tackle the biodiversity emergency, seeking to build a nature network and protect species across habitats. Burnham has been a supporter of the Climate and Nature (CAN) Bill and the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
But how will this translate to the national tier of government? So far Burnham has set out clear priorities including deeper devolution, public control of assets and reindustrialisation. Yet commitment to Net-Zero has not stood out as a priority. Worse still, he has left the door open on the issue of new oil and gas licences.
An “Open Mind” on North Sea Oil and Gas
The debate on whether to reverse existing bans on new oil and gas licences remains highly contested, and Burnham may well have a deciding impact on whether Jackdaw and Rosebank gas and oil fields go ahead, as industry bodies push for a decision by August. This will provide an indication of what we can expect from Burnham’s Premiership.
His vote to approve the Seventh Carbon Budget just days after being sworn in as MP signals that his support for climate action extends beyond Manchester. As the budget assumes no new oil and gas fields, this leaves room for cautious optimism. Yet he has said he has an “open mind” on new North Sea licences, and as PM will face two strong sources of pressure: trade unions and the international context.
The GMB and Unite are major Labour donors, and both oppose a ban on new drilling. Furthermore, the Iran conflict has pushed oil prices up, placing pressure on the government to allow new licences for drilling oil and gas in the North Sea. Burnham will face pressure from industry, the media and factions within his party to approve Jackdaw and Rosebank as soon as possible. This is despite the fact that much of the oil produced from Rosebank will be unsuitable for British refineries, and is likely to be sold on the open market, meaning approval would by no means guarantee cheaper oil and gas for British consumers.
Burnham has made his commitment to reindustrialisation clear, reassuring to the unions, but in order to keep the UK in line with its climate commitments it is critical that reindustrialisation is focused on renewable energy sectors, rather than the short-term gains of new oil and gas. This decision will define Burnham’s credibility on climate issues, and determine the role Britain can play as a climate leader, at a time when international consensus on climate issues is crumbling.
The Cabinet Question
Ed Miliband’s fate will be a key indicator of the direction of Burnham's government. There is reported speculation that Miliband is destined for the Treasury, a move that would be positive for the UK Net-Zero agenda given Miliband’s history of support for decarbonisation of the economy.
However, Miliband’s potential appointment is the subject of significant opposition, from the media and from factions within the Labour movement. Unite’s Sharon Graham claimed that Miliband would put a “noose around the neck” of job creation. Unite is the biggest union donor to the party, creating a source of conflict with the right of the party, who may prefer candidates such as Wes Streeting, who is also speculated to be a potential candidate for the position, and who has shown support for new oil and gas licences.
Burnham’s likely appointment of his long-standing friend James Purnell as Chief of Staff raises concerns. Purnell leads advisory firm Flint Global, which has worked BP and Amazon, amongst others, firms which are by no means aligned with the interests of the climate and nature agenda. This is a first concrete indicator of what Burnham’s Premiership could mean for the environment, beyond speculation at this early stage, and does not bode well for the Net-Zero agenda.
While the Miliband question remains open, the Purnell one is already answered. Burnham’s cabinet will provide the first real evidence of how far Burnham will take his commitments to Net-Zero into Downing Street.
Overall, Burnham's record in office demonstrates a long and consistent history of support for Net-Zero and climate targets. Under Burnham, Greater Manchester has consistently striven towards a greener economy and public services, and he has successfully integrated social justice and industrial renewal with progress towards his 2038 Net-Zero target. Yet, entering Downing Street brings a host of new challenges. Burnham faces the many-headed beast of keeping to Britain's climate commitments, appeasing key factions within his Party, and maintaining discipline in Parliament. His decisions on cabinet members and on new North Sea oil and gas will reveal the true strength of his commitment to Net Zero, and to the future of Britain's climate leadership on the global stage.
