In a Landmark Security Assessment released this month, the joint intelligence committee (made up of MI5 and MI6 security intelligence chiefs) acknowledged global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as critical threat to the UK’s national security, economy and public order. The report “Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem collapse and National Security” validates the warnings put forth by The National Emergency Briefing. It issued a stark warning that without decisive action, the UK faces starvation, economic collapse, civil unrest and wars which leads directly to food insecurity and economic instability. The report which focuses on risks associated with global ecosystem collapse transcend every aspect of society with high risk factors including (but not limited to)
- Crop Failure
- Loss of livelihoods
- Conflict and military escalation
- Rise in organised crime
- Economic Insecurity
- Pandemic risks
WHAT DOES THE ASSESSMENT TELL US
The assessment identifies six global ecosystem regions critical to the UK’s interests warning that degradation in these areas would trigger displacement of millions of people, alter global weather patterns and drive intense geopolitical tension for resources. Consequently, the UK economy is sustained via resources imported from these ecosystems – 40% of our food is imported while 18% of the animal feed produced in the UK depends on soy from South America. These collapses would drive up global food prices threatening household food security across Britain.
“Food production is the most significant cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss”
The assessment warns that the UK lacks the land to be self-sufficient without a wholesale change in consumer diets. Without significantly improved resilience, the UK is unlikely to maintain food security in a worst-case scenario.
“The rate of extinction is tens to hundreds of times higher than the average over the past 10 million years.”
Perhaps the most alarming finding of the report is that every critical eco system is on a pathway to collapse defined as an irreversible loss of function. Far from a distant threat, there is a "realistic possibility" collapse begins in coral reefs and boreal forests by 2030, with rainforests following by 2050. Crucially, we may have already "unknowingly crossed thresholds," making this inevitable even if the consequences are not yet visible.
“It would take resources of 1.6 earths to sustain the worlds current level of consumption”
The report outlines a terrifying landscape of National Security Risks where ecosystem collapse acts as a catalyst for global instability. It warns that migration will surge as development reverses, creating cascading security risks including migration and organized crime exploiting scarcity. At the state level, the assessment predicts that geopolitical competition for arable land and critical minerals will intensify, making conflict and military escalation more likely.
NGO PERSPECTIVES ON THE ASSESSMENT
The release of the National Security Assessment has triggered a wave of reaction from civil society, uniting NGOs, business leaders, and the farming sector in a call for urgent consistency between government intelligence and government policy.
While organizations like the Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (CIEEM) and the Nature-based Solutions Initiative (NbSI) welcomed the formal recognition of nature loss as a Tier 1 security threat, they sharply criticized the manner of the report's release. Both groups condemned the quiet publication of such critical findings, warning of a dangerous implementation gap where the government’s own scientific warnings are being ignored in favour of budget cuts and planning policies that prioritize short-term growth over long-term ecological and national stability. Richard Benwell, CEO of Wildlife and Countryside Link, reinforced this, questioning the government's ability to meet its 30x30 protection targets in accordance with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework which was adopted in December 2022.
The Rainforest Foundation UK and the NGO Forest Coalition exposed the contradiction of UK institutions backing £1.2 billion in forest-risk financing since the Paris Agreement. As these groups argue, the UK cannot classify nature as a Tier 1 security threat while simultaneously bankrolling its destruction. These groups along with, former Zero Hour co-director, Oliver Sidorczuk calling upon the implementation of Schedule 17 of the Environment Act closing of the gap between intelligence warnings and policy reality. Sustainability experts at Anthesis echoed the call for urgency, warning that the private sector must move from passive awareness to active ownership" and embed nature recovery directly into financial governance.
Crucially, the agricultural sector reinforced the security warning. David Exwood of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) argued that in a volatile world, the UK cannot rely on imports, calling for funding to help farmers strengthen both environmental stewardship and food production. This concern was echoed by Chris Turner the country manager at Microbes, who noted that the burden of these necessary interventions must not fall solely on vulnerable farmers. As Graham Morgan of The SLM Woodland warned, the window of opportunity to implement these policies is closing fast.
We need new legislation in response.
The Climate and Nature Bill is more needed than ever. The bill’s contents directly address the specific security vulnerabilities identified in the assessment.
- The CAN Bill turns the NGO call for action into law by creating a statutory duty to reduce the UK’s overseas ecological footprint, ensuring we stop offshoring our environmental destruction.
- The Bill creates a joined-up plan requiring the Secretary of State to achieve both National Determined Contribution to reduce emissions and halt and reverse loss by 2030 targets simultaneously. This ensures that energy transition projects do not accelerate the ecosystem collapse warned of in the NSA.
- While the UK agreed to a lot of international targets, they are not enshrined in domestic law. The CAN Bill explicitly writes the Kunming-Montreal commitment to halt and reverse nature loss by 2030 into UK law, making the NSA's recommended course of action a legal statutory requirement.
- By establishing a Citizens' Assembly, it bypasses political fear and hands the mandate back to the people to design a fair food transition.
